Tony Blair has overestimated his remaining support and is now slowly losing a power struggle with his planned successor as prime minister, Britain’s chancellor Gordon Brown. Yesterday the two held two confrontational meetings but the sniping still reached a fever pitch on both sides in a spectacle that terrified the new Labour faithful. Martin Kettle sees it as a destructive event for the party:

“Brown is taking a fantastic risk in mounting this coup. If it fails, like the forerunner attempt in May did, he will have caused mayhem in the Labour party with no reward. If he overcomes his caution and sees it through this time, though, he could be winning a pyrrhic victory. And by ousting his one-time ally, he may achieve something that until now seemed wholly impossible – stirring up sympathy for Blair.”

Calling it all a “coup” is an illustration of the extreme tactics Blair will employ, as he still dreams of a sendoff of grandiose visits before retirement. As the Guardian reported:
“An internal Downing Street memo detailing the strategy for handling Tony Blair’s departure from office was leaked yesterday.
Titled “Reconnecting with the public – a new relationship with the media” and published in the Daily Mirror, the document apparently suggested a number of headline-grabbing events, including appearances on Songs of Praise, Blue Peter and the Chris Evans show on BBC Radio 2.
Visits to 20 of the most striking new buildings since 1997 was another goal.”
The prime minister is not only unsympathetic but also deeply unpopular in Britain. No groundswell of support will rise for the instigator of the war in Iraq, the increaser of university fees, the introducer of 28-day detention without charge (shortened from 90 days as Blair wanted), the politician who wants unprecedented ID cards for all British subjects, the PM that couldn’t help but undermine Brown politically with changes in planned dates of departure and conflicting announcements about how long he planned to stay.
Blair will leave office with great credit for reviving British public services, at least to some extent, and a few other accomplishments including a strong economy. But Brown had much to do with many of the successes. Now Blair is undermining his legacy by trying to hold on as long as possible out of contempt for Gordon Brown. His speech today was seen as a move toward the door, but what does within a year really mean? As the (London) Times Online reports:

“Tony Blair finally confirmed today that he will leave Downing Street within the next 12 months, earning himself a breathing space in the face of calls from his own party to hand over power sooner rather than later.
The Prime Minister made his announcement at a school in St John’s Wood, north-west London, the day after eight members of the Government resigned in a coordinated protest at his refusal to name the date for his departure.”

But can Brown pull Labour back together and beat David Cameron and the conservative party? Peter Wilby is doubtful:

“What happened to the Tories in 1997 could easily happen to Labour in 2009 or 2010. Because Brown will be a better premier than John Major, and because there will be no policy divide as deep as Europe, there won’t probably won’t be a landslide. But Brown, I think, will still lose.”
Tony Blair should resist the temptation to continue releasing the hounds (like his junior Blairite MPs and Peter Mandelson) on Brown and instead step aside immediately.
[photo: Reuters]